Do experts adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?
Author InfoPhilip Hans Franses (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) Rianne Legerstee (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) Abstract Model-based SKU-level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU-level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model-based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Download InfoTo download: If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In
