Do ABAGs population estimates differ from the State of California Department of Finance (DOF)?
Yes. DOF and ABAG use the same type of model — the cohort survival model. However, ABAG assumes levels of migration to the Bay Area based upon the availability of land and job growth. ABAG’s model consequently makes more modest assumptions about population growth than DOF. Does ABAG assume existing policies and laws, or does ABAG assume that local policies will change? ABAG assumes that local policies will be consistent with current political agendas in the community. However, ABAG assumes that policy makers will respond to problems as they arise and that specific policies will be modified to respond to new problems in the long term.
