Didn the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.” As I explained above, there are really 51 different exit polls (if one counts the telephone-only poll in Oregon), one for each state plus D.C. For each state exit poll, we now know the final projection based on interview data alone (called the Call 3 Best Geo), as well as the pollsters’ estimate of the uncertainty in each projection. (See the table on pages 21-22 of the exit poll evaluation report.) The final interview-only projection for Ohio showed Kerry ahead by 6.5 points with a “standard error” of 3.9 points. Using the conventional 95% standard for “margin of error,” the margin of error would be 7.8 points. Using the 99.5% standard that the exit pollsters used as the first (not only) criterion for a “call status,” the margin of error was over 10 points. So, Kerry’s apparent lead in Ohio was within the margin of error. Kerry led in three other interview-only projections in states that Bush eventually won; all three were al
