Did the Izmit and Düzce Earthquakes Put Istanbul at Risk?
This apparent relentless westward march of earthquake epicenters has fueled an active and sometimes lively scientific debate―still ongoing today― about where the next earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault will occur and how big it will be. Indeed, two years before the occurrence of the Izmit earthquake, Stein et al. (1997) proposed that, as a result of the progression of stress transfer since the 1939 event, the city of Izmit was possibly next in line (Figure 3). The prediction was soon realized. Figure 3. Cumulative Stress Evolution Resulting from the Sequence of North Anatolian Earthquakes from 1939 to 1992 (Source: Stein, 1997) Soon after the devastating earthquakes of 1999, some seismologists suggested that the Izmit event indeed triggered the subsequent M7.2 Düzce earthquake and loaded stress on westerly faults near Istanbul. Parsons et al.(2002) suggested that two fault segments—central Marmara and Princes’ Island (Figure 4)—were particularly at risk and, as a result, Istanb
