Did the distribution of clusters across Governorates lead to over-sampling of violent areas?
Summary: clusters were distributed according to the population of Governorates and all Governorates included in the calculation of total excess deaths had at least one cluster. With sufficient number of clusters, there is no reason that this would lead to over- or under-sampling of Governorates with particular characteristics. This is borne out by more detailed examination of the data. The survey was designed so that the number of clusters in each Governorate varied with the proportion of the total population. For example, as one-quarter of the Iraqi population lives in Baghdad, one-quarter of the clusters (12 out of 47) also were located there. The other Governorates had 1 to 5 clusters. On average, each of the 47 clusters represent 577 thousand people. However, the distribution of clusters in all Governorates inevitably leads to some rounding, with some Governorates having very slightly “too many” clusters and some “too few” relative to their share of the population. As the only prin
