Did NAFTA really cause Mexicos high maquiladora growth?
Author InfoWilliam C. Gruben Abstract Although Mexico’s maquiladora or in-bond plant system is an important and well-recognized component of Mexico-U.S. trade, the connection between the acceleration in maquiladora growth and NAFTA is less clearly understood. A broad cross-section of maquiladora observers – including journalists, political activists, industry analysts, and professors — argue that Mexico’s maquiladoras have been strongly influenced by NAFTA and have grown rapidly as a result. There are reasons to wonder if these conjectures are correct. I test for the contribution of NAFTA to fluctuations in maquiladora employment and find evidence that no such connection exists. Instead, maquiladoras post-NAFTA growth is connected to changes in Mexican wages relative to those in Asia and in the United States, and to fluctuations in U.S. industrial production. Indeed, for ever 1 percent change in U.S. industrial production I find a change in maquiladora employment of between 1.2 and 1.
