Did GM John Hart make a mistake signing such an inexperienced player to a long-term contract?
A team should sign a player that has a greater expected level of production than other available players with the same level of risk and cost. A rational team expects a reward commensurate with the risk it takes, generally requiring a greater discount for each additional year of a contract. Multiyear deals are chancy propositions. The team guarantees payment and must assume several risks, most notably catastrophic injury or rapid deterioration in performance. How can the Rangers evaluate these risks? PECOTA can generate a Five Year Forecast that analyzes Blalock’s expected value and performance over the forthcoming five seasons. The system produces a player’s value estimate measured in Wins Above Replacement Player (“WARP”), factoring in risks like the probability of some lost playing time (attrition rate) or a completely lost season (drop rate) and the likelihood of performance erosion (collapse rate). PECOTA also creates a performance forecast, measured in Equivalent Average (“EQA”),
Related Questions
- What is to prevent a player from signing a huge contract, commanding a large (guaranteed) signing bonus, then never playing a single down in the NFL?
- What happens if I decide to not continue with the purchase after making the offer or signing a Reservation contract?
- Whats the most common mistake inexperienced video producers make when shooting promotional videos?
