Could plunging oil prices make Tehran more friendly?
Iran will stop exporting fuel oil in the New Year, officials announced yesterday. It needs it for its own people. That is a measure of how the plunge in oil prices from $140 a barrel to $40 is hurting the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter. Is this the shock that might nudge Iran’s leaders to think again about their nuclear ambitions? To be blunt, probably not. Nothing so far has made them budge from the goal of enriching uranium in a way which would put a nuclear weapon within reach. All the same, the sharp fall in the oil price, coming at a crucial stage in Iran’s nuclear work, does strengthen diplomatic efforts to dissuade the Tehran Government. It may even topple that Government. Those who have been trying – and failing – to persuade Iran to change direction now wonder whether the sudden shock of plunging national income might persuade Iranians to pick a new president in the June elections. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s promise to put oil money on the tables of Iran’s poorest people – a s
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