Could our ability to predict disaster lie in maths equation?
Brussels, 20 October 2006 A European ecologist at the University of Barcelona has been studying a model to characterise the occurrence of natural disasters. Some time ago, another ecologist studying wildfires in southern Europe observed that they occurred in a logical pattern. He noticed that for approximately every three fires of any given size, there is one twice as big, and for every three fires of that size, again there is one twice as big. This phenomenon is known as the power law, and new research expands on this idea. Despite such analysis, our understanding of the power law remains rather limited. Salvador Pueyo from the Department of Ecology at the University of Barcelona (UB) has been studying a statistical procedure to further develop our understanding of the power law. He decided to reanalyse some findings published in the journal Science concerning pests attacking coffee plantations in Mexico. The original authors of the article studied plagues of scale insects which tap t
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