Could H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Cause a Pandemic in Humans?
To date, there have been 18 confirmed human cases and 8 human deaths caused by H5N1 influenza. To cause a pandemic, the virus must easily and efficiently spread from person to person. The H5N1 influenza virus was demonstrated genetically to be avian in nature with no evidence of re-assortment with the human influenza virus genes, i.e. a pure avian virus. Influenza viruses are known to readily mutate, as evidenced by the great number of H and N types identified. Many in the scientific community have expressed concern that the longer the virus is transmitted among the human population, the greater the possibility that it will mutate and become highly adapted for humans, and thus spread more efficiently. Extensive studies to date have not conclusively demonstrated the mode of transmission or variables that affect virulence in the human population. During serologic investigations of suspect individuals, seropositives were identified in the human population with no history of clinical disea
