Could a human influenza pandemic develop in Australia as a result of migratory bird carrying avian influenza virus to Australia?
No, there is little or no likelihood of a human influenza pandemic developing in Australia as a result of migratory birds carrying avian influenza virus to Australia. Previous human influenza pandemics emerged in densely populated parts of Asia. On each occasion a circulating human influenza virus acquired some new genetic material from the reservoir of harmless avian influenza viruses that circulate in wild waterfowl. The circumstances that enable a new, “reassorted” virus to emerge as a human pandemic virus clearly only occur very rarely, and under conditions whereby there is close habitation of very large populations of poultry, pigs and people. These conditions do not occur in Australia. If a human influenza pandemic were to develop as a result of avian influenza viruses mixing with human influenza viruses, it would, in all probability, develop somewhere else in the world and spread to Australia with international travellers.
