Considering how wrong they are, why are the same old talking heads continuing to give advice?
Unless you force experts to be specific, as we did, they can make predictions that are difficult to falsify. You know the cynical clich “Never assign a date and a number to the same prediction.” That lets you get away with saying things like “Yes, I did say the Dow will hit 36,000, and it will – just wait. I was merely a little early.” Experts are also very good at explaining errors away by concocting counterfactual history. “If only the world had heeded the warnings of, say, [libertarian-leaning Texas Congressman] Dick Armey about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the financial crisis would have been far less severe.” This is a ridiculous line of reasoning. Nobody knows what would have happened in a hypothetical world. Who are you listening to in this market? I look for a combination of cognitive flexibility and high IQ. Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi is not a bad person to listen to. He was somewhat out in front in anticipating this crisis and has a capacity for seeing diff
