Can we quantify uncertainties in complex models of the complete Earth System?
Posted on August 9th, 2009 Submitted by cornford Categorized as Biodiversity, Climate, Earth System, Human Health, Interdisciplinary, Other, Social Science, Social-Ecological Systems Tagged as climate model, uncertainties 10 How to Vote: You need to log in or register in order to vote. The models we are using to base our judgements on are all imperfect. We must acknowledge this and attempt to address quantitatively how these uncertainties affect the judgements we are able to make on the basis of these models. Without uncertainty estimates (error bars if you like) any decision making will be arbitrary. With them it is more complex, remains subjective but at least can be justified and explained. This will be essential if the hard choices that we face are to be effectively communicated and acted on. Addressing uncertainty is central to all aspects of modelling, from the dynamic climate models to models of ecological systems, society and economics. Coupling such models makes uncertainty qu
