Can we identify a trend in hurricane intensity over the past few decades?
There have been several peer-reviewed publications arguing that the data show a clear increase in hurricane intensity over the past few decades. Kerry Emanuel started the controversy with a paper in Nature (PDF) that came out just before Katrina flattened New Orleans. Then Webster et al. published their paper in Science (PDF) that essentially confirmed the Emanuel results. Subsequent papers by these investigators make the case that this increase in intensity can be connected to global warming (e.g., here and here, both PDF). However, there have also been legitimate concerns about the analyses, in particular the quality of the data. There certainly are scientists out there who consider the evidence totally convincing and have entirely accepted the idea that global warming is leading to more intense hurricanes. And there are those who are wholly unconvinced. My sense is that most scientists think there’s a good chance these analyses are right, but would not consider the case a slam-dunk.
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