Can we detect the current trend in HIV incidence by just using information on AIDS diagnoses?
Cui J; Australasian Society for HIV Medicine. Conference. Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1997 Nov 13-16; 9: 149 (poster no. P63). National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Australia. OBJECTIVE: Knowledge of the current trend in HIV incidence is useful to formulate strategies for prevention of HIV infection. The objective of this paper is to investigate the extent to which AIDS incidence data can reveal the current trend in HIV infection, and whether information contained in HIV screening tests can improve the ability to detect such a trend. METHODS: A generalized linear model is used to describe the relationship between HIV infection, HIV diagnosis and AIDS diagnosis, with a parameter measuring the current trend in HIV incidence. HIV testing information is incorporated into the model by an additive hazards approach. A simulation study is carried out. RESULTS: If only AIDS incidence data are used, we cannot confidently detect a small tre
