Can useful predictions to be made in such complex situations as negotiations or war?
This is an empirical question. The answer is no if unaided expert judgment, whether by an individual or a group, is used. Fortunately, there are two methods that do provide useful forecasts about behavior in conflict situations. They are structured analogies and simulated interaction (an adaptation of role playing). Evidence on the former method is given in Green and Armstrong (2004). Evidence on the latter method is given by Green (2004).
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- Can useful predictions to be made in such complex situations as negotiations or war?
