Can Trimble get re-elected? If not, can devolved government in Northern Ireland survive without him?
Mr Trimble needs majorities of both unionists and nationalists in the Stormont assembly to back him. The centre-ground Alliance and Women’s Coalition parties could help, but with equal numbers of pro- and anti-agreement unionists, it could be a very close shave. If no IRA offer emerges before August 12 that looks like it could muster unionist support, the government has the choice of calling elections or suspending the institutions. Elections are risky as the bitterly opposed DUP and Sinn Fein could emerge the largest parties, pushing prospects of agreement even further away. Suspension would allow more time for a deal to be worked on, but there is no guarantee devolution could be re-established and political vacuums are always dangerous, given the volatile loyalist marching season and rising sectarian tensions.
