Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions?
Author InfoBrian C. Briggeman Christopher Zakrzewicz Abstract With the farm boom ending in 2009, many farmers have become less able to repay short-term loans. As farm profit margins erode and farm loan delinquencies rise, some in the agricultural industry worry that lending standards will tighten—as they did in the farm debt crisis of the 1980s. ; One barometer of future agricultural credit conditions is agricultural bankers. Experience and access to information give these bankers a unique perspective on agricultural credit conditions. In fact, several Federal Reserve banks survey agricultural bankers in their district to tap this source of information. But how reliable are regional Federal Reserve agricultural credit surveys? And can a regional survey shed light on future loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide? ; Briggeman examines the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions to explore these questions. He concludes that the Survey of
