can standardizing peer-review today predict manuscript impact tomorrow?
OBJECTIVE: Evidence-based surgery is predicated on the quality of published literature. We measured the quality of surgery manuscripts selected by peer review and identified predictors of excellence. METHODS: One hundred twenty clinical surgery manuscripts were randomly selected from 1998 in 5 eminent peer-reviewed surgery and medical journals. Manuscripts were blinded for author, institution, and journal of origin. Four surgeons and 4 methodologists evaluated the quality using novel instruments based on subject selection, study protocol, statistical analysis/inference, intervention description, outcome assessments, and results presentation. Predictors of quality and impact factor were identified using bivariate and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Oncology was the most common subject (26%), followed by general surgery/gastrointestinal (24%). The average number of study subjects was 417; the majority of manuscripts were American (53%), from a single institution (59%). Eighteen percent
