Can Probability Theory Be Used to Refute Evolution?
In a privately published volume entitled The Evolution of Man Scientifically Disproved, in Fifty Arguments, the Reverend William A. Williams, writing in 1925, offered the following thought: The evolution theory, especially as applied to man, likewise is disproved by mathematics. The proof is overwhelming and decisive. Thus God makes the noble science of mathematics bear testimony in favor of the true theories and against the false theories. This refrain has been a mainstay of creationist literature ever since. Claims of mathematical disproof of evolution typically make use of probability theory. The idea is to show that it so improbable that a given complex biological structure, such as the vertebrate eye, could have evolved gradually that it is effectively impossible for it to have done so. Frequently this argument will include actual calculations purporting to place the assertion on a rigorous mathematical footing. As a professional mathematician, I am well aware of how impressive su
