Can landslides be predicted?
Essentially all hillsides have the potential for a landslide; therefore, they can only be predicted in the most general way. For instance, where a landslide has occurred in the past, there is a higher probability that it will reactivate sometime in the future. Where natural slopes have been disturbed by cutting away at the bottom of the slope, there is a higher chance of sliding in that area relative to the undisturbed hillsides. Hillsides subjected to intensive watering or private septic systems may also be more susceptible. The type of soil a hillside is composed of can also affect its potential for landsliding. Hillsides composed of poorly indurated or highly fractured rock are more susceptible to landsliding. We can also generally say that there will probably be more landslides in a wet year than in a dry year, but an absolute prediction of where a new landslide will occur would constitute an educated guess at best.
