Can Enough Corn Be Produced for Food, Feed and Fuel?
Corn production in the United States increased from 4.17 billion bushels in 1966 to 11.11 billion bushels in 2005 (USDA–NASS 2006). Approximately 80 percent of this increase resulted from higher crop yields and approximately 20 percent from expansion of crop area. The rapid expansion of ethanol production currently under way will require greater amounts of corn than previously predicted before the recent, abrupt rise in oil prices. In fact, U.S. ethanol production capacity will easily pass the 7.5 billion gallons per year mandated by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Table 1). A capacity of 10 billion gallons by 2010–2011 is more likely. Some in the corn industry believe it will be possible to produce 16 billion gallons of ethanol by 2015 while also meeting corn grain requirements for human food and livestock feed. In addition to increasing average corn price (Table 1), rising corn demand for ethanol production will amplify price volatility as the market responds to news that will affect
