Can earthquakes be predicted?
Although it is understood that most earthquakes will concentrate at plate boundaries, there is no reliable method of accurately predicting the time, place, and magnitude of an earthquake. Earthquakes are difficult or impossible to predict because of their inherent randomness and near-chaotic behavior. Most current research is concerned with hazard mitigation, or minimizing the risk associated with earthquakes by assessing the combination of seismic hazard and the vulnerability of a given area. Many countries with a great deal of seismic activity have research programs based on identifying possible precursors to major earthquakes. These include the study of dilatancy, how rocks crack and expand under the increased stress associated with an earthquake. Some major earthquakes, but not all, are heralded by the occurrence of foreshocks, which can be detected by dense local monitoring networks. Even the minimal 60-second lead time some of these networks offer can allow enough time for gas ma
Modeling fault behavior with a simple slider-block apparatus can provide students with valuable insight into the difficulty of earthquake prediction and the complex behavior of Earth systems. I have developed an open-ended activity in which students are challenged to design an experiment that models fault behavior and to determine which variables in the earth might affect the number or magnitude of earthquakes that occur. I have used the activity with secondary-school science teachers and their students, but it is also appropriate for undergraduate geoscience majors. Students are provided with materials to construct a fault model, but few instructions are given. Their investigations are guided by curiosity and a few key questions that I suggest they investigate in their experiment. Working in groups, the students design the apparatus, develop an experimental procedure, determine what to measure, and analyze their data. In the process they learn how science is done and increase their le
Many seismologists would probably answer, “Not yet, but eventually.” But to date, nobody has been able to predict earthquakes reliably enough and over short enough time scales to allow the evacuation of threatened cities. Some scientists have entirely lost faith in earthquake prediction. They say that so many factors decide whether a fault will rupture that earthquakes could well be inherently unpredictable in a practical sense.
A California company that charges for earthquake forecasts says it was relatively successful in predicting a small temblor near the Missouri Bootheel town of New Madrid this week. But scientists and government officials remain firm in their belief that earthquakes cant be forecast. California-based geoForecaster launched a Web site February 18th in which subscribers can see the companys earthquake forecasts as well as link to quake information for fees starting at $9.95 a month. They say their site is based on years of science and research. But a spokeswoman for the U.S. Geological Survey, the government agency that monitors earthquakes, disagrees. She says “We dont forecast or predict earthquakes. We dont know of any technology that can forecast them.
With the present state of scientific knowledge, it is not possible to predict earthquakes and certainly not possible to specify in advance their exact date, time and location. However, a great deal of research is being conducted to develop reliable prediction methods. Canada, along with other countries, is working to minimize damage and injuries through the implementation of modern earthquake-resistant standards so people will be protected whenever and wherever an earthquake occurs.
