Can earthquakes be predicted?
Predicting the next major earthquake may depend more on finding quiet ground than on listening for rumbles and shakes. New research shows that periods of “seismic quiescence”—times when there are far fewer small earthquakes in an area than normal—sometimes precede the world’s strongest and most damaging earthquakes. Geophysical Institute Professor Max Wyss, who holds the Wadati Chair in Seismology, is developing new methods to test the hypothesis that major earthquakes often occur after the ground has been unusually quiet for months or years. Much of Earth shakes with a constant number of small earthquakes created by the continual movement of plates around the globe. The theory of plate tectonics suggests that these semi-rigid plates move independently on a viscous underlayer in Earth’s mantle. When the plates grind against each other, the contact can cause earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. “When there is a sudden decrease of earthquakes in an area, it suggests something unusual i
Scientists and seismologists the world over say it is impossible. Eighty-year-old P N Nair, though, believes he has developed a scientific method that can predict both the general time frame and the location of an impending earthquake. Though science may dismiss him, thousands of Kutch residents will now find it difficult to forget him. Earlier, when he predicted a devastating earthquake would hit Gujarat by the end of January, people pooh-poohed him. Then, when he published his forecast in the Gujarat daily, Kutch Mitra, on January 8, the experts dismissed it. Nair even tried his best to impress on the Gujarat government the seriousness of his findings, but the authorities ignored his warnings. Which is why, today, Nair is a frustrated man. Though he is distraught that most of his friends and neighbours in Gandhidham have perished, he is relieved that his wife, two daughters, son and their children are safe; that his house there has escaped with only a few minor cracks. But, as he pre
Although scientists have long tried to predict earthquakes, no reliable method has been discovered. Seismicity in the Pacific Northwest has only been extensively studied for a couple of decades, and seismologists are still trying to understand the frequency and hazards of earthquakes in our region. Click Here for a more in depth discussion on earthquake prediction. • Q: Is one Seattle area neighborhood safer than another? A: There is no Seattle area neighborhood that is immune from possible earthquake damage. The age of the structure and the type of geology in the area are two factors that will affect the vulnerability to earthquakes. There are ways to perform a seismic retrofit on older homes. The Project Impact web page has information on home retrofits. Another valuable resource is the Cascadia Regional Earthquake Workgroup (CREW). The American Red Cross has a variety of earthquake preparedness publications. We encourage you to visit the following page for more information about ear
Earthquakes happen when the tectonic plates underlying the continents slip past each other violently, causing severe vibrations. Unlike eclipses, predicting earthquakes was entirely impossible prior to the 1970s. However, some headway has been made in recent decades. In February 1975, scientists predicted an earthquake five hours in advance. The earthquake occurred in Haicheng in northeast China and it was the first time an earthquake prediction bore true. Millions of people had time to evacuate their homes and factories before the earthquake hit, saving tens of thousands of lives. Although many towns were totally destroyed, only a few hundred people died. Another Chinese earthquake took place near T’ang-shan in August 1976. Although the earthquake was predicted a few years in advance, around 700,000 people still died from the quake. Long-term predictions seem to have limited value. Earthquakes can be scientifically predicted by observing tiny cracks in rocks and how they widen when th
