Can changes in the stock market be accurately forecast?
Stock market prices, like prices in any market, represent the combined forecasts of a large number of unbiased experts when the experts have access to the available information. Studies since the early-1930s suggest that we are unlikely to find procedures to improve upon the forecasts of markets. However, we can predict that there will be a never-ending stream of claims by some people that they or their models can do better than the market. We need to remember that with so many experts making predictions, some will get it right simply by luck. With this fact in mind we should avoid being driven to blind faith that mathematics can reveal opportunities or that seers really do exist.
