Can Casualties in High-Vulnerability Tornadoes be Reduced?
The Groundhog Day tornadoes in Florida exhibited three elements of high vulnerability for casualties: they occurred during the overnight hours, struck an area with many mobile homes, and hit ground during an “off-peak” winter month when tornadoes nationally are infrequent. We have examined this event in depth to determine if casualties could have readily been reduced. All of the fatalities on February 2 occurred in mobile homes, and predominantly leveled mobile homes. The tornadoes were well warned, with a lead time of y minutes for the Lake County portion of the Lady Lake tornado, a 31-minute lead time for the Lake Mack tornado, and a tornado watch issued more than two hours in advance. A lack of sirens in Lake County probably slowed dissemination of the tornado warning, but disseminating the warning would not have saved lives had Lake Mack residents not had a safe location in which to go. Liu et al. (1996) noted the lack of shelter as a limitation to warning response in a 1994 Alabam
