Can a crash be predicted using wave analysis?
Trends and turns can be predicted with some reliability, but it is rarely possible to comment on whether a wave will unfold slowly or rapidly. Certain specific junctures in corrective waves are prone to crashes, such as in 1937 and 1962. Those that come right off a top, such as in 1929 and 1987, seem to occur after extended fifth waves, in other words, when the final move up in a bull market is especially long. But timing that juncture can be elusive to say the least. Is it possible to look at the charts and call a crash for the following day with some kind of certainty, or can we merely identify moments of relatively high probability of a crash? Its always a matter of probability, and crashes are so rare that even when you see likely conditions, the chances of them actually leading to a crash at the time are slim. What determines whether a crash turns out to be a correction (albeit a very violent one in the case of 1987), or the start of something very much worse (as in 1929)? The det
