Bill, whats your reaction to the extreme market pessimism in Robert Shillers Irrational Exuberance?
…My position is that it’s a very important book. But I also argued [in my BW review] that Shiller did not take the character of recent technology into account in what he said. Nevertheless, all investors have to come to terms with Shiller’s basic point: Price-earnings ratios early this year were higher than at any time in the 20th century. Each time in the past when p-e’s rose to anything resembling their early-2000 levels, the market stagnated for more than a decade… Q: Is the economy really slowing? Are we flirting with recession with the higher interest rates? A: Yes, the economy is really slowing. I think that the jump in the unemployment rate exaggerates the degree of slowdown, but there are lots of other indicators that also imply a slowdown, including the purchasing managers’ survey, new orders for durable goods, chain-store sales, and the recent housing-market data… Q: Do you think the Fed will allow rates to remain the same at their June meeting with a wait-and-see appro
