As Wheat Turns The Corner Toward Harvest, How Sharp Is That Corner?
The current wheat crop was planted on more acres than the 2005-06 crop, but in many areas wheat suffered critical injuries earlier this spring from the devastating freeze. With some disease problems and harvest getting underway in the coming month, let’s visit about the supply and demand outlook for the crop, and where prices fit into the larger commodity picture. USDA’s latest wheat outlook estimated the crop at 2.2 billion bushels, up 20% from last year on 11% more acres. Kansas State economist Mike Woolverton characterized that as bearish news, but since world stocks are down, “U.S. exports of wheat are expected to be strong because of tight supplies in other major wheat exporting countries. The national average U.S. farm price for wheat is expected to be in the range of $4.35 to $4.95 per bushel. The projected wheat price also reflects the battle for acres with corn that will be continued into the next crop year.” The current wheat crop has been challenged, not only with freezing t
