As the force that controls the capital, Kabul, does the Northern Alliance hold all the cards?
The Northern Alliance holds major cards, but not all of them. It has possession of Kabul, but it does not have the allegiance of all the Afghan tribes, especially the Pashtun. The alliance has said it is willing to share power. Its intentions will now be tested. The alliance has the military might of the United States behind it and will not want to put that at risk – a powerful incentive for it to compromise. Is the return to Kabul of the deposed former king of Afghanistan likely? The former king, Zahir Shah, seems unlikely to play the major role foreseen for him at an earlier stage. Indeed, the UN and Western governments are disappointed that he has not proved to be more of a rallying point. But his approval of the process that is to be kicked off in the conference is seen as important. He might return to Kabul at some stage but nothing is planned. Will they try to agree on a UN peacekeeping force for Afghanistan? A UN peacekeeping force could prove a real problem. Already, the Northe
