Aren’t the computer models used to study climate really simplistic?
Global climate models—the software packages that simulate the past, present, and future of our atmosphere—have grown in complexity and quality over the last 10 to 20 years. Yet even the earliest models of the 1960s, which were quite crude by today’s standards, showed that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could increase global temperature by around 5°F (3°C). That projection remains close to the modern consensus, and temperatures over the last 30 years have risen at a rate consistent with this early estimate.
(1) Global climate models have grown in complexity and quality over the last 10 to 20 years. (2) Yet even the earliest models of the 1960s, which were quite crude by today’s standards, showed that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could increase global temperature by around 5°F (3°C). (3) That projection remains close to the modern consensus, and temperatures over the last 30 years have risen at a rate consistent with this early estimate.
