Are there officially accepted economic “markers” that denote a recession?
A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as an extended decline in general business activity with two (some experts say three) consecutive quarters of falling real gross domestic product. – In addition to declines in GDP the NBER examines employment, industrial production, manufacturing/trade sales, and personal income as indicators of a recession. The last recession in the US lasted eight months and ended in March 1991. The subsequent ten-year period of uninterrupted growth between March 1991 and March 2001 was the longest in our history. Recession is a normal part of the business cycle and generally lasts from six to eighteen months. Interest rates usually fall in recessionary times to stimulate the economy by making money inexpensive to borrow.
… in my opinion that’s a very academic definition. A recession is happening, as i see it, when people who want jobs and could do them productively can’t get them for non-structural(**) reasons (that is, because the economy isn’t creating enough jobs). (*) the National Bureau of Economic Research ( www.nber.org/ ) , self-defined as “a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.” (**) structural reasons would have to do with real-world friction, such as jobs going begging in one part of the country while there is an excess labor supply in another part.
A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as an extended decline in general business activity with two (some experts say three) consecutive quarters of falling real gross domestic product. – In addition to declines in GDP the NBER examines employment, industrial production, manufacturing/trade sales, and personal income as indicators of a recession. The last recession in the US lasted eight months and ended in March 1991. The subsequent ten-year period of uninterrupted growth between March 1991 and March 2001 was the longest in our history. Recession is a normal part of the business cycle and generally lasts from six to eighteen months. Interest rates usually fall in recessionary times to stimulate the economy by making money inexpensive to borrow. – Merrill Lunch Economists make a compelling argument that we’ve been in a recession since 2007:
