Are there country-to-country differences in polling accuracy with Western Europe and the U.S.?
In Western Europe and the United States, the pollsters have a long track record and much expertise in sampling their populations. I look at polls from emerging democracies when I can, but I don’t always know enough about how they are conducted, etc. to judge them. It is my understanding, though, that there are many good polls being conducted in emerging democracies. I do not know how to answer your second question about country differences in polling accuracy. Q [Jacek]: How far out does it make sense to poll? I have already seen polls saying [Republican Senator] John McCain will beat [Democratic Senator] Hillary Clinton. They are not even candidates [for president] yet. Is there any reliability to these kinds of things, or should we just not do them? A: Polling for the 2008 election started even before the 2004 campaign was over. I don’t think it makes much sense to poll so early. It simply measures a person’s name identification. For some possible candidates such as Hillary Clinton,
In Western Europe and the United States, the pollsters have a long track record and much expertise in sampling their populations. I look at polls from emerging democracies when I can, but I don’t always know enough about how they are conducted, etc. to judge them. It is my understanding, though, that there are many good polls being conducted in emerging democracies. I do not know how to answer your second question about country differences in polling accuracy. Q [Jacek]: How far out does it make sense to poll? I have already seen polls saying [Republican Senator] John McCain will beat [Democratic Senator] Hillary Clinton. They are not even candidates [for president] yet. Is there any reliability to these kinds of things, or should we just not do them? A: Polling for the 2008 election started even before the 2004 campaign was over. I don’t think it makes much sense to poll so early. It simply measures a person’s name identification. For some possible candidates such as Hillary Clinton,
