Are there certain predictions that you’re particularly proud of having made?
A. You’re only as good as your last performance, so I’m proud of the Europe collapse call right now. But historically, there have been lots of good moments, and a few real screw-ups. Here are a few of the winners: Every part of the MS/Justice trial. Microsoft “smoothing” financials. The Yen/dollar ratio since 1995, with no mistakes. The advent of the CheapPC and WorldPC form factors. The 1997 global currency collapse (and Japan’s role). Years of sales projections for PCs and cellphones. The so-called Telecom Collapse, and how it really happened. The pre-ordained Iraq Attack, and the lack of WMD. Picking the SNS Four Horsemen (Microsoft, Intel, Cisco and Dell) almost ten years ago, without wanting to change them since. Predicting the first successful unfriendly takeover of a software company (Lotus, by IBM), which was the substance of the first issue of SNS. China’s firing of rockets over and around Taiwan. Each Japanese Prime Ministerial election winner since 1995. Amazon’s first year
