Are the yield curve and the CMT rates an indicator of future rates?
The yield curve and the CMT rates merely indicate what rates were in the past and what they are now. Treasury recognizes that many researches use the CMT rates to develop complex yield analyses and attempt to project these rates into the future. However, future economic and monetary policies that impact the yield curve cannot be accurately forecast, and thus attempts to forecast future CMT rates must be considered risky, at best. Treasury does not project future interest rates and neither endorses nor discourages work by other researchers in their attempts to project rates.
Related Questions
- Why do longer CMT maturities sometimes have yields lower than the shorter maturities (i.e., "inverted yield curve rates")?
- What is the term structure of interest rates and the yield curve, and what do they explain?
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