Are the damage and casualty figures upper-limits on the very worst accident which could happen?
No, the figures cited above could be significant underestimates for several reasons: • Nuclear plants are now being built and planned 5 times bigger than they were when the Brookhaven Report was written in 1957; that means that they produce 5 times more radioactivity per year. • Because the nuclear fuel is cleaned less often now long-lived radioactivity is given more time to accumulate inside the reactor. Therefore, at the moment of accident, a 1000-megawatt reactor may contain more than 5 times as much radioactivity as the 200-megawatt reactor postulated in the Brookhaven Report. • The human casualties depend, of course, on how much exposure to radiation is received; if we do not succeed in evacuating up to half a million people fast enough, the casualties will go up. • The Brookhaven Report postulated an accident at a small nuclear power plant located about 30 miles from a city. Huge reactors are now being built 24 miles from New York City; 12 miles from downtown Gary, Indiana; 4 mil
