Are historical grain price trends still relevant?
I received an interesting question/comment from a grain producer, and I thought you might enjoy reading his comments and my response. I’ve noticed that you reference historical trends from approximately 1990 to today, and time sales to coincide with those trends. Do you think historical data older than the last few years has value in today’s market place? My reason for asking is the markets have been so atypical and volatile since the advent of ethanol production and the increased impact of South American production. “Old” patterns do not seem to hold, and including older data may dilute the current trends. [During] the last few years, the “pre-river opening” period has not been a good time to market corn, while in years past it seemed like the preferred time. I think the historical trends we follow are still relevant today, because these trends are rooted in the grain production cycle (spring planting, summer growth and fall harvest). Having said that, it is helpful to remind ourselve
