Are Computer models of FMD spread worth using?
• Computer models of FMD spread can provide useful information to assist decision making. It is important to use the best, most accurate models of FMD spread available, which allow for different species (including wild species) producing and being exposed to virus, different methods of spread (direct / indirect contact, airborne) and different environmental conditions which. Models are only as good as the data entered into them and good surveillance information, giving data showing the present extent of infection in wild as well as domestic animals is necessary for models to give accurate forecasts. It is also important to remember that answers from computer models, however sophisticated, should never be used as the sole means of making major decisions. Computer models can assist in making a professional judgement, but must never replace that judgement.
