And given my naivete regarding the minor leagues and the odds that a top prospect will actually turn into a contributor, I was wondering if you could give me a rough idea of how often top pitching prospects turn into top major leaguers?
The attrition rate for pitching prospects is certainly higher than for hitting prospects. History shows this, though the exact “success rate” will vary depending on how you design a study. A good rule of thumb is that for every 10 decent pitching prospects, you’ll get one good pitcher, two average ones, two below-average pitchers, and five complete failures, often due to injury. Sometimes teams have a run of luck, good scouting, good coaching, or some combination of those factors and exceed those percentages. Sometimes a team can collect a dozen pitching prospects and have them all fail. It’s a tough business. Of the Angels group, Jenks has the highest ceiling, but also has to prove that he can throw strikes consistently. Santana probably has the best overall combination of stuff and command, and should be ready soon. Saunders must show he can recover from the elbow problem that cost him all of ’03. Guys like Rafael Rodriguez, Abel Moreno, and Nick Touchstone have live arms and should
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