Accuracy of Future Climate Projections?
This graph shows how well the IPCC’s projections of future temperatures have compared to actual global temperatures. The black dots show actual observed temperatures from 1990 to 2005 (as compared to the average from 1961 through 1990). The black line is a smoothed fit of those yearly observed temperatures. The colored lines and shaded regions show IPCC projections for the same timeframe from the First (1990), Second (1996), and Third (2001) Assessment Reports (FAR, SAR, and TAR, respectively). The shaded region for each Assessment Report shows the range of projections for different models. For the FAR and SAR, there is also a solid line for the ‘best estimate’ model projections (the TAR did not have a ‘best estimate’ model projection). Credit: Image courtesy of the IPCC (AR4 WG1 Report “The Physical Science Basis” Chapter 1 page 98 Figure 1.1).
