A few days ago, the trend estimate for the most recent polls showed a pattern that is no longer there. What happened to that pattern?
Because we are always adding new polls and the regression trend estimate takes into account all polling data, the “nose” of the trend line, covering the last few weeks, will move up or down as new polls become available and apparent patterns in this nose may change or disappear. It could be that what initially appeared to be a pattern gets “smoothed” over as contrary evidence is added at a later date, or it could be that pollsters are releasing polls with an earlier release date. Also, our estimates place a poll based on the dates it was in the field, not based on the date when it was released, so if a poll with an older field period is released it may affect the trend estimate at points surrounding that date.
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