Why are there differences with the Department of Sustainability & Environment (DSE) forecasts?
The Victorian Government has released population and household forecasts for every Statistical Local Area (SLA) in Victoria. These forecasts, titled Victoria In Future 2004, were prepared by the Department of Sustainability & Environment (DSE). The DSE forecasts are based on a ‘top-down’ model. This means that forecasts are prepared for metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria and then effectively allocated to SLAs, ensuring that these total to the numbers for the larger areas. The forecasts prepared for Moyne Shire by .id in contrast are based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach, where development assumptions are made for each individual small area and the forecast for the Shire is a sum of the forecasts for each of the small areas.
