How much coal?
Doubts were first raised in a book-length 2007 report by the National Academy of Sciences titled “Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy” (1), which noted that “Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since — 1974,” and concluded that a newer and better assessment “may substantially reduce the number of years’ supply.” Also in 2007, an energy analytics organization founded by a member of the German Parliament, Energy Watch Group (2), released a study of US and world coal supplies concluding that global coal production will reach a peak and begin to decline sometime around 2025, and that US coal production will peak only slightly later—perhaps by 2030 or 2035. Last December the USGS issued a report (3) on the nation’s largest and most productive coalfield, in Wyoming, finding that, at current prices, only about six percent of the coal can be profitably mined; if coal prices soared, then more of the coal w
