Can the Singularity be avoided?
There are a couple of ways the Singularity might be avoided. One is if there is a hard limit to computer power that is well below the human-equivalent level. Well below means like a factor of 1000 below. If, for example, computer power were limited to only a factor of 100 short of human capacity, then you could cram 100 CPU chips in a box and get the power you wanted. And you would then concentrate on automating the chip production process to get the cost down. Current photolithography techniqes seem to be good for a factor of 50 improvement over today’s chips (maybe a real expert can correct this figure for me if I am off). So it seems that we need at least one major process change before the Singularity and maybe it doesn’t exist. Another way to possibly avoid the Singularity is by humans messing themselves up sufficiently. The argument goes that the work involved in killing people is roughly constant over time, but the energy and wealth available to each person goes up over time. So
