Can Rogue Waves Trigger CAT?
For rogue waves to be a significant trigger of CAT there must be a sufficient number of waves with steep slopes, and there must be sufficient vertical wind shear that the isotach and potential temperature surfaces are shifted with altitude sufficiently to change the vertical gradients of wind and potential temperature (causing Ri to decrease below 1/4). A complete mesoscale atmospheric dynamical model would be needed to address this question, but it would still need to be initialized with a rogue wave having a realistic slope and phase line slope (which specify the change in Ri). The remainder of this study is a first step in assessing the importance of rogue waves in CAT generation. I will quantify how often large “rogue wave” slopes occur due to the “innocent” addition of normally occuring mesoscale waves. It is hoped that follow-up studies will quantify how any pre-existing vertical wind shear will produce phase line slopes, and hence, how Ri will be affected by the rogue waves. App
