Who can do forecasting?
Anyone is free to practice forecasting for most products and in most countries. This has not always been true. Societies have been suspicious of forecasters. In A.D. 357, the Roman Emperor Constantius made a law forbidding anyone from consulting a soothsayer, mathematician, or forecaster. He proclaimed may curiosity to foretell the future be silenced forever.” It is sensible for a person practicing forecasting to have been trained in the most appropriate methods for the problems they face. Expert witnesses who forecast can be expected to be examined on their familiarity with methods. One measure of witness expertise is whether they have published in the area in which they claim expertise. In a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, while publication was not accepted as a necessary condition for being an expert witness, it was regarded as an important qualification. The development of well-validated forecasting methods has improved the status of forecasting expertise. Nobel Prizes for Econom
