What Hath TANF Wrought?
In trying to understand what has happened since 1996, there are really two stories to appreciate: One concerns what has happened to families, and the other concerns what the block grant structure has meant for state budgets and spending on low-income initiatives. When we look at the impacts on families, the challenge is to disentangle the changes in welfare from those in the larger economy. Three trends are critical indicators: caseload decline, the increase in employment of poor single mothers, and the improvement in the low-wage labor market. The first two phenomena are partially related to welfare reform, while the third has occurred despite the increase in the supply of low-wage labor that welfare reform induced. The impact most often cited is the decline in welfare caseloads. The number of caseloads began falling in 1994, but the decline greatly accelerated after the 1996 law was passed. In early 1994, 5.0 million families were receiving assistance. By the time the law passed, the
