Where do REIT ETFs go from here?
News flow from the retail land is likely to remain positive and this can provide a positive backdrop for shopping center REITs. Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics says retail same-store sales comparisons clearly bottomed in July. He is forecasting sequential monthly improvement into the holidays with Christmas 2009 likely being ‘weak but not disastrous’. David Simon is more optimistic. He feels pent-up demand coupled with low inventories could enable retailer sales to surprise to the upside during the upcoming holiday season. The picture in the commercial property segment is not as sanguine. Commercial real estate typically lags economic growth and is more closely tied to the employment market. As companies continue to reduce headcount, they need less space. With office rents in cities like New York and San Francisco forecasted to decline nearly 20% through 2010, a recovery in commercial real estate could be pushed into 2012. From a technical perspective, REIT share prices look extended wit
